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Revenues from the provision of pay-TV services in North America will fall by USD 3bn between 2010 and 2016 to reach USD 67.2bn, as TV average revenues per user (ARPUs) are forced down by operators' drive to convert customers to multi-play bundles, according to a new report from Digital TV Research.

“DTH became the largest pay-TV earner in 2010, by overtaking cable’s combined total," said Simon Murray, author of the report. "DTH [DBS] revenues will reach USD 37.2bn in 2016, up just over USD 2bn on the 2010 total. The number of pay-DTH households will increase by 3.5mn between 2010 and 2016 to reach 39.8mn. However, DTH penetration will not change too much, settling at 29.2% by 2016.”

Cable TV revenues are expected to fall by USD 8bn between 2010 and 2016 and reach USD 25.6bn, with analogue cable TV revenues forecast to dwindle from USD 9bn in 2010 to nothing by 2016, although digital cable TV revenues are predicted to rise USD 1bn over the same period to reach USD 26bn.

“Pay-TV penetration is already at saturation point, at just below 90% of TV households," added Mr. Murray. "Despite no movement in the penetration figure, the number of pay-TV subscribers will climb 8mn between 2010 and 2016 to 122mn.”

Penetration of digital TV services hit 86% by the end of 2010, and will reach 100% by 2016, according to the report, with most of this growth to come from Canada. Out of the 25mn digital TV homes to be added between 2010 and 2016, around 15mn are expected to come from cable, 7mn from IPTV, 3mn from DTH and 1mn from DTT.

There are expected to be 68mn cable homes (all digital) by 2016, down from 71mn (of which 53mn were digital) at the end of 2010, while the number of homes paying for IPTV services such as AT&T's 'U-verse TV' service is expected to double during the forecast period and reach 14mn - or just over 10% of TV households.  IPTV revenues are expected to more than double to reach USD 4.4bn by 2016.

DTT is believed to have already reached saturation point, at 9% of TV households. Primary DTT households are expected to increase by only 1mn between 2010 and 2016 to reach 12.8mn.

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