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There is a fast-growing opportunity for TV operators in Sub-Saharan Africa, including those from outside the region, as populations soar and incomes per capita continue to rise, creating a burgeoning number of middle-class consumers, according to a new report from Digital TV Research.

The number of households in Sub-Saharan Africa reached 148mn at the end of 2011, and this figure is predicted to increase by 20mn over the next six years, bringing it to a similar level to Western Europe.

However, the region's TV household total (38mn at the end of 2011, or a quarter of homes) is currently only equal to that of Germany. This total is predicted to increase to 50mn by 2017, representing 30% of all homes in the region. Nigeria is expected to account for around a quarter of TV households in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2017, with South Africa contributing a further 15%.

Three-quarters of the region's TV households still received analogue terrestrial TV signals by the end of last year, although this proportion will drop to 46% in 2017, or 23mn households.

About a quarter of TV homes (9.2mn) received digital signals at the end of 2011, and penetration of digital TV is expected to "rocket" to 54% by 2017 - with household numbers tripling to 27.3mn.

South Africa (by some distance the market leader for digital TV in Sub-Saharan Africa) will have achieved 100% digital migration by 2017, equivalent to 7.9mn homes. Proportions in other countries will be much lower, although Nigeria will have 7mn digital homes by 2017, up from 1.9mn in 2011.

Pay-TV penetration of TV households is forecast to grow from 19% in 2011 to 28% in 2017. Of the region's 7.2mn pay-TV subscribers at the end of last year, 6.1mn were pay DTH.

The number of pay-TV subscribers in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to double to 14.1mn by 2017, with DTH contributing 8.2mn and pay DTT delivering 5.2mn. South Africa supplied an estimated 4mn of the 2011 total, and is expected to grow to 5.1mn in 2017. Nigeria meanwhile is predicted to climb from 1.2mn in 2011 to 3.1mn in 2017.

A third of homes are expected to take DTT (both pay and free-to-air) in 2017, up from just 4% at the end of 2011. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to have 16.4mn DTT homes by 2017, of which 11.2mn will be free-to-air and 5.2mn will be pay - up tenfold from 2011. Nigeria is expected to be the region's largest DTT market in 2017, both for free-to-air (3.2mn) and for pay (1.7mn).

Penetration of digital pay DTH services is expected to remain at just over 16% of TV households over the next six years, although this will be distorted by South Africa, where penetration is nudging 60%, thanks to companies like Multichoice.

The next-highest penetration for digital pay DTH services in 2017 will be 12% for Tanzania and Uganda, according to Digital TV Research.

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